Industry Evolution

The first three levels include the hardware and highly specialized hardware dependent algorithms that provide the basis for any biometric solution. As hardware price/performance curves drop and demand for algorithmic sophistication increases, the hardware portions of biometrics solutions - sensors and devices - will become commodities whereas the algorithms will be increasingly valued as a means of solution differentiation.

While middleware will become increasingly important in creating standards based interoperable solutions, ultimately this is freeware fodder. The lion’s share of industry revenues will be claimed by the organizations that focus on solving specific end user problems - BASPs, some VARs, OEMS and ultimately the organizations that will swallow the BASPs and any other promising emerging biometrics innovators. Systems Integrators and Government Contractors.
Sensors become increasingly more accurate and less expensive. In some cases, specialized sensors will be developed for high-end security applications. The bulk of sensors will be mass produced for what will become mainstream applications of biometric technology.

Algorithms will ultimately become the most important key differentiator of biometrics technologies. As Sensors and Devices reach technology plateaus, innovations in algorithms will enable continued overall performance improvements.

Devices within specific categories (i.e. finger scan) become increasingly undifferentiated as the technology stabilizes. Patent protection runs out on protected technologies (i.e. iris scan) and competition works towards further leveling of the playing field

Middleware is destined to become freeware as market growth will depend on widespread adoption of standard application interfaces. As Sun Microsystems’ giveaway of the Network File System (NFS) transformed the networking industry, so to must the interoperability layers of biometrics applications.

BASPs (Biometrics Application Solutions Providers become the dominant force in the industry in the near-term creating the vertical market focus that will accelerate mainstream adoption. Solutions and support drive the lion's share of industry revenues as proven market-specific deployments then encourage buyouts by the physical and logical security behemoths and other broad based systems integrators and government contractors.

VARs (Value Added Resellers) & OEMs (Original Equipment Manufactures) that bring a vertical market focus to biometrics solutions will also capture market share and revenue as the industry evolves. Though may eventually be almost completely superceded as the larger players engulf the industry.

System Integrators - both security focused (TYCO, RSA, CSA) and more broad-based ( EDS, IBM, Raytheon ) - will form strategic (and not so strategic) alliances as they integrate biometrics into larger security solutions and engage in a wait and see posture before aggressive acquisitions of biometrics companies begin. As the dominant Application Solutions Providers clearly emerge, the integrators will make their move and biometrics will become an integrated enabling technology.

Government Contractors will also likely the acquisition game as proven biometrics market leaders emerge. In addition to the broad-based Integrators mentioned above, the Boeings and Lockheed's of the world ultimately fully integrate biometrics-based security into a wide range government systems and services.

End Users will ultimately decide the fate of biometrics. End-user acceptance will depend on the reliability and ease-of-use of biometrics systems, not just the technologies.

Consultants, though not specifically represented on the Map, will provide specialized services to Vendor, Integrators and End-Users as the market develops.